2006 Florida Marlins Predictions & Season Preview
It doesn’t look like our 2006 Florida Marlins predictions will put the fish back in a playoff chase this year or any time soon. Especially after losing two of their best pitchers, Josh Beckett, to the Red Sox and AJ Burnett to the Toronto Bluejays. They also lost their closer in Todd Jones to the Detroit Tigers, and they picked up Joe Borowski to fill the void. I’m not convinced he’ll be able to get the job done. The Marlins do still have an ace in Dontrelle Willis, but it will be nearly impossible to repeat his 22 win season that he had in 2005.
The Marlins weren’t bad at the plate last year, surprisingly leading the National League with a .272 average, but they don’t return hardly any of their big bats and will have to rely on a bunch of rookies. Miguel Cabrera is back though and will be able to post MVP like numbers if opposing pitchers pitch to him at all. This guy is as solid as they come, batting .323 last year with 33 home runs and 116 runs batted in.
The Marlins are an organization which, to me, makes baseball look bad. They win a World Series, hold a fire-sail, and then start rebuilding again. This isn’t conducive of building a good fan base and it has shown. The last time they did seem to rebuild fairly quickly. They have had back to back seasons hanging around the .500 mark and losing backers units. But you never know. If they make the playoffs they seem to be able to win the World Series as their only 2 playoff appearances in franchise history have led to World Series Championships. I would suspect the Chicago Cubs among others are envious. But the recipe for success is really quite simple. If you spend the money to get the players, you win.
You can expect Florida to crush left handed pitching and that’s about all. Although, there numbers could suffer with the losses of several key players. We’ll have to keep on the lookout in the early going. The Marlins won 22 of 32 games as a road favorite when facing left handed pitching the last 3 years. Another lesser known trend that you should be on the lookout for is how teams respond after a loss. Do they rebound well, or does it get them in a rut. If the Marlins lose by double-digits, they come out the next game playing inspired ball. In fact, they have won 22 of 34 for a positive 10 unit gain after a double-digit loss. However, they are minus 11 units coming off a loss and minus 24 units after a win the past 2 seasons. I would expect these stats to vary some in 2006, but expect the Marlins to once again find some motivation after a big loss, especially early in the season. They could lose motivation later in the year if they find themselves too far down in the hole.
If this team gets past 70 wins, it will be a major success. There is no doubt that bettors will be going against Florida heavily this season, so pick your sports and join them when Willis hits the mound as good value should present itself.
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